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Yu, Hong-Wen俞鈜文

Postdoctoral Researcher

Research Interests

My research focuses on climate and environmental change impacts on forest ecosystems, with emphasis on the spatiotemporal characteristics of forest fires in Taiwan, wildfire risk modeling and prediction, and fire management strategies. Holding a degree in Forest Management from National Chung Hsing University, I have published research spanning Atmospheric Science, Forest Resource Evaluation, and Environmental Economics. In wildfire research, I examined western U.S. wildfire effects on air quality and national park visitation, and for Taiwan, analyzed six decades of fire-climate relationships, projected future wildfire risk under climate change, and assessed practitioner risk attitudes to inform adaptive management strategies. I also contributed to developing the Wildfire Danger Rating System for the Forestry and Nature Conservation Agency of Taiwan, translating research into operational disaster prevention. In forest resource valuation and environmental economics, my work addresses non-market valuation of ecosystem services, including recreation, carbon sequestration, water conservation, and biodiversity, alongside payment scheme design and policy evaluation, published in domestic and international peer-reviewed journals. Looking ahead, I plan to extend wildfire research to broader environmental change assessments and further investigate forest carbon sequestration.

Representative Publications

Yu, H. W. & W. Y. Liu* (2025). Strategic decision-making in wildfire risk management: risk attitudes, strategy shifts, and policy implications in Taiwan. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 128, 105706. (SCIE; 2024 IF=4.5; 38/258=14.5% Q1). Accepted. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105706

Yu, H. W., S. Y. S. Wang & W. Y. Liu* (2025). Do fire weather conditions significantly affect wildfires in subtropical forests in Taiwan? Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 64(2), 165-184. (SCIE; 2024 IF=2.2; 71/111=63.5% Q3) https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-24-0031.1

Yu, H. W. & W. Y. Liu* (2025). Visitor dynamics under disturbance: exploring the interplay of air quality, wildfires, and U.S. national park visitation patterns. Leisure Sciences, 1-28. (SSCI; 2024 IF=1.9; 51/139=36.33% Q2) https://doi.org/10.1080/01490400.2025.2468402

Yu, H. W., S. Y. S. Wang & W. Y. Liu* (2024). Estimating wildfire potential in Taiwan under different climate change scenarios. Climatic Change, 177, 13. (SCIE; 2024 IF=4.8; 20/111=17.6% Q1) https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03669-z
Chen, Y. Y., S. Y. S. Wang, H. W. Yu, & W. Y. Liu* (2024). When forests hold their breath: will increasing drought further disrupt carbon sequestration? Environmental Research Letters, 19, 031002. (SCIE; 2024 IF=5.6; 12/111=10.4% Q1) https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad27ba

Research

Estimating Wildfire Potential in Taiwan under Climate Change By integrating satellite observation data and regional dynamically downscaled climate change projections, I investigated the spatiotemporal relationships between historical wildfire risk and climate-environmental change in Taiwan, as well as future wildfire risk trends under climate change scenarios. I compiled 58 years of climate-environmental and wildfire event data to identify the key drivers of wildfire risk in Taiwan. My findings revealed that wildfire risk in Taiwan is more strongly driven by drought conditions than by extreme high temperatures, and that seasonal drought in central and southern Taiwan makes spring the peak wildfire season. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, wildfire occurrences are projected to increase by approximately 35.6% by the late twenty-first century, indicating that climate change will significantly elevate wildfire risk in Taiwan. Reference: Yu, Wang and Liu (2024)

Strategic Decision-Making in Wildfire Risk Management in Taiwan  By integrating two decades of wildfire incident response records (2004–2023) with discrete choice experiment (DCE) field surveys, I examined the development of Taiwan‘s wildfire management strategies over the past 20 years and the risk attitudes of wildfire management personnel. Through simulating decision-making processes under conditions of high uncertainty during wildfire events, I aimed to improve the efficiency of emergency resource allocation and adaptive management. My findings revealed that Taiwan’s wildfire management strategies have shifted significantly toward Full Suppression over the past two decades, and that wildfire management personnel generally exhibit risk-averse attitudes with a high priority placed on personnel safety. Model estimates indicate that Taiwanese wildfire managers are willing to pay NT$1.69 million to prevent one casualty per 1,000 wildfire events. Reference: Yu and Liu (2025)
  • Ph.D.
    . Department of Forestry,
    National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan (2025)
  • M.S.
    M.S.
    Depart. of Horticulture,
    National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan,
    National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan (2021)

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  • owen39693

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