Evaluating fine-scale ESMs for Southeast Asian Climate and Extreme

2024.05.14 14:00-16:00


Dr. Shunya Koseki

Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, NORWAY

Even state-of-the-art CMIP-class Earth system models (ESMs) still exhibit biases in simulating realistic climate state and these biases are source of uncertainties in climate prediction and projection. One of possible solutions could be a refinement of model’s resolution like High-ResMIP. Towards this direction, NextGEMS project (EU Horizon 2020) is developing European “storm-resolving” ESMs whose resolution is a range of 10km to a few km (atmosphere and ocean) globally.
This very fine resolution allows us to investigate climate, air-sea interaction, and extreme weather in marginal oceanic areas where common CMIP6 might have difficulty to resolve properly. This study assesses how 10km-resolution ESMs from NextGEMS project and other fine-resolution ESM can reproduce the climate and some extreme weather (wet and dry) in Southeast Asia that is related strongly to monsoon system, comparing to observation and some of CMIP6 ESMs.

In the seminar, I will focus more on winter monsoon season (Dec-Jan-Feb) and show some preliminary results of this verification.