Towards a global model of human adaptation to heat stress

2022.11.24 10:30-11:30


Senior Scientist Luis Costa

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

ONLINE 10:30 (10:00 上線測試 / Testing network connectivity)
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Towards a global model of human adaptation to heat-stress.

In a warming climate health-damaging heat events will become more intense and longer lasting. In response human populations will inevitably adapt via a combination of infrastructure, risk behaviour and even physiology. Only recently has the effect of adaptation to heat-stress been evaluated empirically via changes on the minimum mortality temperature (MMT) - temperature at which mortality is as its minimum - in time. Although results suggest a substantial mitigating effect of human adaptation in reducing health outcomes of heat events, studies are limited to relative rich cities/locations for which appropriate data recordings are available. Using a harmonized database for 400 cities, a generalised model was established to upscale MMT globally based on a set of climatic, topographic and socio-economic drivers. Long-term changes in MMT are then modelled as a function of climate change and socio-economic progress using multiple combinations of RCPs and SSPs. On the long run (around 2100), results point for a reduction in risk to human health from heat-stress due to increases in MMT. In addition to the methodologies and results, an outlook of future research to refine the adaptation model will be discussed.